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The New York Knicks escaped a tough game 2 at the Garden with a win that leaves fans wondering if the team has what it takes to make it past the Miami Heat. Even without Jimmy Butler the Knicks struggled to keep the Heat offense from outpacing them until the final minutes of the game. Without Julius Randle’s 25 point performance I’m not sure the Madison Square Garden crowd gets the win they need to keep their Eastern Conference Finals aspirations alive. Sure Jalen Brunson dropped 32 points by game’s end but he clearly struggled early and appeared limited by a bad ankle that he fell on awkwardly in the 3rd quarter. Brunson will play Game 3 but if the Heat keep him out of the paint he will have to keep knocking down 3s. I think the key to the Knicks scoring in Game 3 will be the success of RJ Barrett and Julius Randle. Assuming Butler plays in Miami the Knicks are going to need to play a lot better in terms of rebounding, defending the perimeter, and not turning the ball over if they hope to go up in the series 2-1.

Wagering

As of Thursday 5/4, the Heat sit as a –3.5 point favorite. If the Heat do win then it is likely they will pull out a victory by more than 4 points. That is contingent on Butler playing which I assume he will. I like the OVER on 208.5 points total for the game. RJ Barrett has been consistently going over 20 points in these playoffs and the odds on that are about 50/50 at -125. It will be difficult to assess how effective Butler will be in this game so I would avoid him scoring more than 20 points. In fact I would avoid most bets on Heat players as they are a streaky team and their points could come from anywhere. Brunson has been a let down in the assist department and Mitchell Robinson isn’t consistently getting double digit rebounds with Isaiah Hartenstein playing significant minutes. I would give Julius Randle a double double in points and rebounds for this one.

My pick (if Butler plays): Heat -3.5 & Over 208.5